Welcome back all! It is that time of the year, (AKA the down-time of year on the sports calendar that is). February tends to be the somewhat "blah" month when it comes to sports. After the Super Bowl at the beginning of the month, there isn't a whole lot going on. Still too early for baseball, a month away from NFL free agency, and just barely the middle of what has become a long, and let's be honest, rather anti-climactic NBA regular season. No major golf tournaments, etc.

While the weather is getting colder, the one sport that starts to heat up as the month goes on, however, is NCAA basketball! College hoops is quickly closing in on next month's NCAA tournament, which means it's once again that time of year - NCAA Tournament Projection time!

After losing the 2020 version of March Madness and all of the magic that comes with it, this year's tournament is even more anticipated than usual.

First off, the NCAA has come up with an exceptional plan to hopefully ensure that this year's tournament will in fact be contested as planned, and we will once again have the opportunity to crown a National Champion.

The tournament will be contested entirely in Indiana, mainly in Indianapolis, and should provide a "bubble" type of atmosphere that will be much more conducive for the players' & coaches' safety.

Source: denverpost.com / In a season of uncertainty, one thing has been certain - the Zags are really, really good - 22-0 and 7-0 in 'Quad 1' games.

With all of that being said, "projecting" this year's NCAA tournament is a truly unique, and slightly more complicated task than it usually is, thanks to the special circumstances surrounding this season due to the coronavirus.

The numerous cancellations, lack of a consistent non-conference schedules across all conferences, and the overall discrepancies in games played from one program to the next, has made the task a bit more challenging than usual. Even within the same conferences, the gulf in games played in the same league can sometimes be drastic.

Take the Big East for instance, where Xavier has managed to only get in 9 league games thus far, while Creighton has played 16 league games already! Or the WAC for that matter, where UTRGV is technically in 1st, but they've only played 2 league games (2-0). Meanwhile, 2nd place Grand Canyon has played 8 league games (7-1).

Colgate has a sparkling NET ranking of 13, but they've only played 12 games (11-1), and they have all come in Patriot League play (not a particularly difficult conference).

So, with that context in place, now it's time to unveil my 1st edition of 2021 NCAA Tournament projections!

We start at the top, where the four #1-seeds aren't much of a surprise at all. In a wacky college hoops season, maybe the easist aspect to sort out, is who is the cream of the crop. Gonzaga and Baylor are both unbeaten, and own 7 & 6 'Quad 1' victories respectively, making them the easy choices as the top two teams in the country. Michigan is right behind at 16-1, with a NET ranking of 3. Despite Ohio State suffering a close loss at Michigan yesterday, they remain as the final #1 seed, mainly due to the fact that they lead the nation with 9 'Quad 1' wins, and own a road victory over the top 2-seed at the moment, in red-hot Illinois.

Speaking of the Illini, they are tops on the 2-line, and followed by fellow Big TEN - foe Iowa, Alabama, and Florida State, who moved up to the 2-line, following last week's impressive clobbering of highly-regarded Virginia.

The Cavaliers dropped from a 2 to a 3, where they are joined on the 3-line by Big East leader, Villanova, and Big XII foes Oklahoma & West Virginia. The Sooners are 5-5 in Quad 1 games, while the Mountaineers are 6-6.

Rounding out the top 16 teams in the field are the Houston Cougars, as the top 4 seed. They own a sparkling NET of 7, and are teetering right on the edge of the 3-line. Creighton, Texas Tech, and USC round out the 4-line.

Keep an eye on a pair of Missouri Valley teams in Loyola-Chicago & Drake. At 19-4 & 22-2, respectively, the pair should be comfortably in the tournament. Both are being a bit undervalued according to a lot of the other projections out there, but own impressive enough NET rankings to be safely & firmly in the tournament at the moment.

Source: actionnetwork.com / Don't look now, but Drake is having one heck of a surprising season - the Bulldogs are now 22-2 and safely in as a 9-seed.

The last four byes belong to Xavier (12-4), St. Bonaventure (11-3), Indiana (12-10), and Colorado State (14-4). The Hoosiers' may be just 12-10 overall, but own an uber-impressive sweep of Iowa, as well as victories over fellow tournament/bubble teams Maryland, Minnesota, and Stanford.

The last four teams in the field are Minnesota (13-10), a resurgent North Carolina (14-7), Stanford (14-9), and Seton Hall (13-9) in that order. Helping out the Cardinal and Pirates in particular, are their respective 'Quad 1' wins. Stanford is 4-5 in such games, while the Hall is 3-6.

They are followed by the "first four out" in UConn (10-6), Utah State (14-7), Saint Louis (11-4), and Syracuse (13-6). One aspect going against the Orange at the moment is lack of quality wins. They are just 0-4 in Quad 1 games, and only own 3 Quad 2 victories.

Behind that group, we have the "next four out". The Duke Blue Devils just catapulted their way into that group, thanks to a big upset of Virginia. Coupled with a home-victory from earlier in the season over Clemson, and the Dukies have went from completely off the radar to firmly "on the bubble". Tonight's showdown with Syracuse is a huge one for both teams. Memphis and SMU out of the American Athletic, also join the Blue Devils in "next four out" territory.

Louisville heads the group of "next four out" teams. I'm not sure I understand the infatuation with the Cardinals however. Both Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm currently have them safely in as an 8-seed. However, when you take a closer look at their resume and metrics, it's difficult to merit them being anywhere close that seed-line, or even being in the projected field at all for that matter.

They do own home wins over fellow-bubblish teams in Georgia Tech, Duke, and Seton Hall, with their best victory coming at home over Virginia Tech. At just 11-5 overall, however, with no road wins of note, a NET of just 53, and an 0-4 mark in 'Quad 1' wins, this team just hasn't done enough to even be in the field. Oh yea and they just lost to North Carolina on Saturday by 45 (99-54)! Coupled with an early-season 85-48 blowout loss to Wisconsin, and I'm having a difficult time trying to figure out why the Cardinals are so deserving of such a higher seed. For now, they have work to do. The good news, they can play themselves in and up the seed line significantly if they can handle a closing stretch that features games at Duke & VT, and then Virginia at home.

There was a lot to cover, but we made it through! Without further ado, here is the @sportsguychris 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS - 1ST EDITION:

Source: gophersports.com / The Golden Gophers have slipped back to "last 4 in" territory after suffering blowout losses to Indiana and Iowa. The metrics still love Richard Pettino's bunch, and their impressive resume certainly helps.

2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS

(#-denotes current conference leader and that conference's automatic bid; record in ( ) followed by NET ranking, and record [W-L] in Quad 1 games this season)

1 GONZAGA (22-0) # 1, 7-0

1 BAYLOR (17-0) # 2, 6-0

1 MICHIGAN (16-1) # 3, 5-1

1 OHIO STATE (18-5) 6, 9-3

-

2 ILLINOIS (16-5) 4, 7-4

2 IOWA (17-6) 5, 5-5 ^

2 ALABAMA (18-5) # 8, 7-3 ^

2 FLORIDA STATE (13-3) # 12, 3-2 ^

-

3 VILLANOVA (14-3) # 10, 2-2

3 VIRGINIA (15-5) 9, 3-4

3 OKLAHOMA (14-5) 18, 5-5

3 WEST VIRGINIA (15-6) 15, 6-6

-

4 HOUSTON (18-3) 7, 2-1

4 CREIGHTON (16-5) 24, 3-1

4 TEXAS TECH (14-7) 14, 4-6

4 USC (18-4) # 19, 3-1

-

5 TENNESSEE (15-6) 17, 5-4

5 KANSAS (17-7) ^ 16, 5-7

5 TEXAS (13-6) 22, 3-6

5 ARKANSAS (17-5) ^ 25, 4-4

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6 LOYOLA CHI (19-4) # 11, 1-2

6 COLORADO (17-7) 20, 2-4

6 WISCONSIN (16-8) 23, 3-6

6 VIRGINIA TECH (14-4) 36, 3-2

-

7 PURDUE (15-8) 28, 3-7

7 MISSOURI (14-6) 37, 6-4

7 BYU (17-5) 21, 3-3

7 FLORIDA (11-6) 30, 3-3

-

8 BOISE STATE (18-4) # 32, 2-2

8 SAN DIEGO STATE (17-4) 26, 0-3 -

8 OKLAHOMA STATE (14-6) 39, 5-4

8 CLEMSON (13-5) 38, 3-5

-

9 OREGON (14-4) 40, 3-2

9 LSU (14-6) 27, 3-6

9 DRAKE (22-2) 31, 1-1

9 VCU (16-5) # 35, 0-3

-

10 UCLA (16-5) 42, 2-3

10 MARYLAND (14-10) 34, 4-10

10 RUTGERS (12-9) 29, 4-7

10 XAVIER (12-4) 50, 1-1

-

11 ST. BONAVENTURE (11-3) 45, 1-2

11 INDIANA (12-10) 52, 2-8

11 COLORADO STATE (14-4) 47, 2-3

11 MINNESOTA (13-10) 61, 4-9 @

11 NORTH CAROLINA (14-7) 33, 1-6 @

-

12 BELMONT (24-1) # 63 ^

12 WINTHROP (20-1) # 71

12 WICHITA STATE (13-4) # 68, 2-2

12 STANFORD (14-9) 57, 4-5 @

12 SETON HALL (13-9) 49, 3-6 @

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13 COLGATE (11-1) # 13, 0-0

13 UCSB (16-3) # 43

13 LIBERTY (17-5) #

13 WKU (15-4) #

-

14 WRIGHT STATE (18-5) #

14 TOLEDO (18-6) #

14 ABILENE CHRI (18-3) #

14 UMBC (14-5) #

-

15 UNCG (16-7) #

15 GRAND CANYON (13-4) #

15 EASTERN WA (12-6) #

15 JAMES MADISON (13-5) #

-

16 SIENA (9-3) #

16 SOUTH DAKOTA (12-9) #

16 PRARIE VIEW (8-4) # @

16 TEXAS STATE (15-6) # @

16 NC A&T (9-10) # @

16 WAGNER (10-5) # @

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LAST FOUR BYES

--------------------------

XAVIER (12-4), 50, 1-1

ST. BONAVENTURE (11-3), 45, 1-2

INDIANA (12-10), 52, 2-8

COLORADO STATE (14-4), 47, 2-3

-

LAST FOUR IN (PLAY-IN GAMES)

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MINNESOTA (13-10), 61, 4-9

NORTH CAROLINA (14-7), 33, 1-6

STANFORD (14-9), 57, 4-5

SETON HALL (13-9), 49, 3-6

-

FIRST FOUR OUT

-------------------------

UCONN (10-6) 54, 2-3

UTAH STATE (14-7) 56, 2-4

SAINT LOUIS (11-4) 48, 1-1

SYRACUSE (13-6) 46, 0-4

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NEXT FOUR OUT

--------------------------

LOUISVILLE (11-5) 53, 0-4

DUKE (10-8) 55, 2-3

MEMPHIS (12-6) 62, 0-2

SMU (11-4) 58, 0-3

-

STILL ALIVE

------------------

GT (11-8) 51, 1-6

ST. JOHN'S (14-9) 76, 2-5

@ = Indicates the (4) play-in game participants

Minnesota vs North Carolina and Stanford vs Seton Hall are the two at-large play-in games, with Prarie View vs Wagner and Texas State vs NC A&T as the two 16-seed play-in games.

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Thank you for the support as always. I will be taking us right up to next month's "big dance" with regular Tournament Projections & Bubble Updates! You can find me on IG & YouTube at @sportsguychris and be sure to check out my podcast with good buddy Mikee:

"The Balls and Beards Podcast" available on Spotify, Apple Pocketcasts, Google Podcasts, Anchor, and Breaker! We keep you up to date on everything in the world of the NFL & NBA!

NCAA / college basketaball

PROJECTING THE 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT - 1st Edition

PROJECTING THE 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT - 1st Edition

PROJECTING THE 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT - 1st Edition